re continue to lean towards being risk-off, until the yen ra

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re continue to lean towards being risk-off, until the yen ra

Сообщение tujue » 24 май 2019, 13:10

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by Jon Day


TOKYO Authentic T.J. Hockenson Jersey , Feb. 9 (Xinhua) -- Concerns are rife about a global economic slowdown as evidenced by an overnight equities rout on major U.S. and European bourses, sending the U.S. dollar tumbling versus other currencies, including the Japanese yen.


Tokyo-based analysts indicating there will likely be more headwinds ahead.


Market here closed sharply lower Tuesday as a swathe of issues were dumped in the face of a rising yen against the greenback, with the Nikkei Stock Average plunging 5.40 percent to a three-week closing low, as market players offloaded riskier assets like stocks in favor of safe haves like the yen.


Analysts said that market consternation was growing based on a raft of economic data suggesting that global economic growth is slowing.


Despite what traders have descried as a temporary uptick in crude oil prices owing to the U.S. dollar's slump proportional to the affordability of oil, the glut will likely continue as surplus continues to outstrip demand and prices drop again when the dollar recovers.


""What we've seen in the last 24 hours or so is a global market react to concerns that, while a slowdown in emerging economies has been widely been factored in, recent macroeconomic data from the U.S. has, collectively, contributed to an overall 'sour indicator' that the world's largest economy may be heading toward a recession,"" Hisao Katayama, a senior equity analyst at Nomura Securities Co., told Xinhua.


""The recent jobs data from the U.S., coupled with a number of key indices charting worrying courses, are impacting global markets, with Japan being no different as we've seen today in the sell-off and the yen's rise,"" Katayama said.


Specifically, he was referring to not just global markets' recent equities rout, with the S&P 500 dropping 9.3 percent for the year and 1.4 percent overnight, but the Stoxx Europe 600 Banks Index, for example, which has posted losses for six straight weeks, marking the longest down spell since the global financial crisis in 2008, but other global barometers of longer term economic woes.


He highlighted the fact that the Baltic Dry Index, which tracks the trade of shipping commodities and is widely regarded as a litmus test for the health of the global economy, had hit all-time lows at the end of last year and declined to date throughout 2016.


""These are the kind of fundamentals that are the most worrisome as such indicators were harbingers of the global financial crisis in 2008 and we're beginning to see some very similar patterns developing, with the situation exacerbated by a continued downtrend in oil prices and the limited impact of central bank's tendencies toward further monetary easing,"" Katayama explained.


In terms of the central bank's moves, the 10-year Japanese government bond turned negative for the first time ever Tuesday afternoon, as concerns about the health of the global economy reached fever pitch on markets here.


The yield on the No. 341, 0.3 percent issue, a key barometer for long-term interest rates, fell to minus 0.035 percent during interdealer trading, down 0.070 percentage point from Monday's close.


Long-term government bonds have been snapped up following the Bank of Japan (BOJ) opting to adopt a negative interest rate in January on some holdings from private banks to encourage more lending and stimulate capital expenditure and consumer spending.


Both of them have inhibited the bank's reflationary goal, partly on business and consumer sentiment being pessimistic for the domestic economy's outlook, despite solid business earnings, as profits have only translated into negligible salary increases.


Banks here have switched funds into bonds, hence, as surplus deposits kept in the central bank will not earn as of Feb. 16, when the BOJ's new policy goes live, with financial institutions also being nudged by constant reminders from the BOJ that it may cut the rate further into minus territory.


Bond prices move inversely to yields and the BOJ has, as part of its aggressive easing operations, been buying government bonds from financial institutions.


""Brokers, then, are hedging that the BOJ will buy bonds at a higher price and this is what has driven the prices up,"" Katayama said.


Akihiro Hoshino, a senior quantitative strategist at Nomura Holdings, believed that European banks' shares taking a pummeling on one side of the Atlantic and the S&P 500 coming under pressure on the other side had triggered markets ""fearing a fundamental slowdown in global growth underpinned by what is likely to be a protracted spell of circumspect global trading with specific data confirming the angst as reasoned.""


""In the United States, January's non-farm payrolls report showed that 151,000 jobs were created, which was well below market expectations, and as such its reasonable to assume that this could impact U.S. consumption, which drives economic growth, as with any economy and, as such, insiders saying the U.S. Federal Reserve may hike its rate again in the near future could be misguided,"" Hoshino suggested.


He added that in addition to the below par jobs data that the Institute of Supply Management's most recent non-manufacturing report showing that output in the U.S. dropped to a three-month low to less than 0.68 percent, added to concerns that the U.S. was facing headwinds and that this would have an elemental bearing on the global economy.


""In the meantime, we will see market sentiment here continue to lean towards being risk-off, until the yen rallies again, but that's merely short-term. The global oil price slump and banking issues in Europe, as well as more recent U.S.-specific concerns, will ultimately decide the course of the global economy; therefore it's reasonable to assume that we are once again on the precipice of challenging economic times,"" Hoshino concluded.

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Re: re continue to lean towards being risk-off, until the ye

Сообщение voxzi » 26 авг 2020, 04:00

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Re: re continue to lean towards being risk-off, until the ye

Сообщение voxzi » 02 май 2024, 18:13

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